橡胶基本面行情

时间:2019-07-28 来源: 河南新闻
件。

现货价格下跌,但幅度有限。人民币总奶一周内下跌100-150元/吨,目前主流报价在11000元/吨左右。保税区价格下跌5-15美元/吨。标准橡胶的价格在1465-1480美元/吨之间。外盘主港下跌20-30美元/吨。

与黑色等工业产品的大幅波动相比,橡胶市场更加无聊。显然,橡胶市场的态度已转向悲观。从宏观角度看,中美两国领导人再次进行了沟通,市场乐观情绪已经点燃。但是,橡胶的反应非常钝。从工业角度来看,尽管云南和泰国的干旱已经缓解,天气已恢复正常,表明产量增长,毕竟干旱严重影响了过去两个月的产量,这将对年产量。另一方面,海关对混合橡胶剑的严格检查仍然很高,不能保证该因素不会再次发酵。显然,宏观和行业都有利于很多因素,但磁盘并没有做出相应的反应。相反,干旱减缓造成的市场再次担心供应的急剧增加会影响盘面。丽都不行,市场只关注,甚至只相信供应会增长,这种情况已经与去年的市场情绪相似。橡胶底部已经半年多了。尽管下面的支撑力确实存在,但推迟单边上行动作的延迟将使市场怀疑下方支撑力度。

The rubber production cycle mainly considers the planting area. However, the actual production depends on the yield. The yield depends on the rubber tapping enthusiasm and weather. At present, the price of rubber is at a historical low, but due to the different living standards, labor costs and potential job opportunities of the major producing countries, the impact of rubber prices on the production enthusiasm of rubber farmers in different countries is also different. In general, the most important growth point of global rubber is still from Thailand. The impact of low prices on Thai rubber farmers does exist, but it is not very large. This is related to the subsidy provided by the Thai government to rubber farmers and to the fact that there are too few industries in which Thai rubber farmers can earn a living. Thai rubber farmers tend to increase production at lower prices, relying on increased production to offset the impact of lower unit prices on income. Thereby forming a vicious circle. Therefore, at the current price level, low prices do not effectively suppress supply.

The inventory of the intermediate links is difficult to decline. Due to various reasons, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone is no longer open, and the total inventory in the bonded area can only be obtained through research. It is understood that the total inventory in the region and outside is still between 350,000 and 400,000 tons, and the pressure is huge.

The relative weakness of demand, coupled with the gradual recovery of supply, will make the market face another downward trend. The weak supply and demand is the most important feature of the current rubber industry. The price trend depends on where the weaker characteristics of the supply and demand sides are more obvious and thus lead the way.

At present, the main contradiction affecting prices is in supply: one is the loosening of the policy of blending rubber, which will lead to the concentration of goods that have not been declared in the previous period, causing the increase of domestic goods. It is reported that there has been a continuous glue clearance. This indicates that the upswing caused by policy factors in the early stage will eventually return to the starting point. The other is that the weather conditions have improved, leading to the production of rubber-producing countries, and the export restrictions are about to be lifted (in fact, there is not much impact). These two points are still biased towards bearishness.

xx天然橡胶市场悲观情绪依然较浓,资本市场很可能把天然橡胶期货市场作为主力空头配置。橡胶周一增仓再次创出近期新低,能化板块最弱的品种,没有守住11205附近的平台支撑,盘中破位之后开始了加速下跌的行情,期价收盘跌破11000整数关口,接下来很有可能挑战10000整数关口。密切关注11000整数关口被跌破后是否出现多头踩踏,加速下行,短线切忌多单抄底,操作上建议逢高布局空单。多周期共振的情况下,建议投资者继续保持空头思路,顺势操作。后续关注20#标胶上市情况,混合胶通关政策落地情况,轮储情况,进口关税调整以及1-9价差情况。预计09合约大概率跌至10600-10800区间。

XX

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