The rubber production cycle mainly considers the planting area. However, the actual production depends on the yield. The yield depends on the rubber tapping enthusiasm and weather. At present, the price of rubber is at a historical low, but due to the different living standards, labor costs and potential job opportunities of the major producing countries, the impact of rubber prices on the production enthusiasm of rubber farmers in different countries is also different. In general, the most important growth point of global rubber is still from Thailand. The impact of low prices on Thai rubber farmers does exist, but it is not very large. This is related to the subsidy provided by the Thai government to rubber farmers and to the fact that there are too few industries in which Thai rubber farmers can earn a living. Thai rubber farmers tend to increase production at lower prices, relying on increased production to offset the impact of lower unit prices on income. Thereby forming a vicious circle. Therefore, at the current price level, low prices do not effectively suppress supply.
The inventory of the intermediate links is difficult to decline. Due to various reasons, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone is no longer open, and the total inventory in the bonded area can only be obtained through research. It is understood that the total inventory in the region and outside is still between 350,000 and 400,000 tons, and the pressure is huge.
The relative weakness of demand, coupled with the gradual recovery of supply, will make the market face another downward trend. The weak supply and demand is the most important feature of the current rubber industry. The price trend depends on where the weaker characteristics of the supply and demand sides are more obvious and thus lead the way.
At present, the main contradiction affecting prices is in supply: one is the loosening of the policy of blending rubber, which will lead to the concentration of goods that have not been declared in the previous period, causing the increase of domestic goods. It is reported that there has been a continuous glue clearance. This indicates that the upswing caused by policy factors in the early stage will eventually return to the starting point. The other is that the weather conditions have improved, leading to the production of rubber-producing countries, and the export restrictions are about to be lifted (in fact, there is not much impact). These two points are still biased towards bearishness.